Russia still possesses the capacity to place NATO in a difficult position, potentially seizing parts of Europe and threatening the cohesion of the military and political alliance, argues Serhii Hromenko, a historian with a Ph.D. in historical sciences and an expert at the Ukrainian Institute for the Future.
“By ‘defeat,’ I do not mean total destruction or even conquest. There will not be tank columns rolling into Berlin — Russia no longer has the tanks for that. But they may not be necessary,” Hromenko explained.
He noted that defeat does not always mean unconditional surrender or a capital city reduced to rubble. Instead, it could mean a post-war settlement that leaves the world in a worse state than before the war began.
“NATO, as a collective force, currently surpasses Russia in strength. But the question is, would that collective remain united if Russia managed to seize a part of European territory?” Hromenko asked.
He pointed to Narva and Svalbard as the most likely targets.
Narva, a city in Estonia with a predominantly Russian-speaking population, is located right on Russia’s border. Svalbard, a Norwegian archipelago in the Arctic, holds strategic value due to its location near Russia and its natural resources.
“Would all NATO countries unite to defend these places, or would they simply voice concern? Would they strike Narva or Moscow?” Hromenko questioned.
In an effort to recover from the failure of its invasion of Ukraine, Russia might attempt one final offensive — perhaps targeting Narva. Even if it is the Kremlin’s last push, if NATO fails to respond firmly, it could also become the Alliance’s last stand.
“In March 1939, Europe was asked whether it was worth dying for Danzig [the historical German name for Gdansk – ed.]. At the time, Europe chose not to. We all know what happened next. I hope that this time, history will take a different course,” Hromenko concluded.
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Ukrainian Historian Hromenko: Russia Could Still “Defeat” NATO
Commentary, Russia and Security
Russia still possesses the capacity to place NATO in a difficult position, potentially seizing parts of Europe and threatening the cohesion of the military and political alliance, argues Serhii Hromenko, a historian with a Ph.D. in historical sciences and an expert at the Ukrainian Institute for the Future.
“By ‘defeat,’ I do not mean total destruction or even conquest. There will not be tank columns rolling into Berlin — Russia no longer has the tanks for that. But they may not be necessary,” Hromenko explained.
He noted that defeat does not always mean unconditional surrender or a capital city reduced to rubble. Instead, it could mean a post-war settlement that leaves the world in a worse state than before the war began.
“NATO, as a collective force, currently surpasses Russia in strength. But the question is, would that collective remain united if Russia managed to seize a part of European territory?” Hromenko asked.
He pointed to Narva and Svalbard as the most likely targets.
Narva, a city in Estonia with a predominantly Russian-speaking population, is located right on Russia’s border. Svalbard, a Norwegian archipelago in the Arctic, holds strategic value due to its location near Russia and its natural resources.
“Would all NATO countries unite to defend these places, or would they simply voice concern? Would they strike Narva or Moscow?” Hromenko questioned.
In an effort to recover from the failure of its invasion of Ukraine, Russia might attempt one final offensive — perhaps targeting Narva. Even if it is the Kremlin’s last push, if NATO fails to respond firmly, it could also become the Alliance’s last stand.
“In March 1939, Europe was asked whether it was worth dying for Danzig [the historical German name for Gdansk – ed.]. At the time, Europe chose not to. We all know what happened next. I hope that this time, history will take a different course,” Hromenko concluded.