Russia’s Mounting Losses Raise Doubts Over Putin’s War Strategy
The Russian military is facing an increasing crisis as the war in Ukraine continues to claim an extraordinary number of casualties. Reports suggest that injured Russian soldiers are being removed from hospitals and sent back to the battlefield, highlighting the severe strain on Russia’s manpower. Footage has emerged showing wounded men on crutches being loaded onto military buses, suggesting that the Kremlin is struggling to replace its battlefield losses.
Western intelligence assessments have long believed that Russia’s ability to sustain high casualty rates has been key to its war strategy. The Russian army has relied on a brutal approach, throwing waves of soldiers into battles such as those in Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Lyman at the cost of massive losses. However, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky has stated that Russian losses may now be nearing one million. Estimates suggest that between 300,000 and 350,000 Russian troops have been killed, while another 600,000 to 700,000 have been wounded.
Ukraine’s top General, Oleksandr Syrskyi, previously estimated that in 2024 alone, Russia lost around 434,000 soldiers, including 150,000 killed in action. This means nearly half of Russia’s total losses in the war occurred last year, making it as deadly for Russian forces as the first two years of the conflict combined. The scale of these losses has inevitably raised concerns about whether the Kremlin can sustain its war effort.
The Russian parliament has begun debating the possibility of an involuntary reserve call-up, indicating growing concerns within Moscow. President Vladimir Putin has been reluctant to enforce full mobilisation, as it would bring the war directly into the homes of Russian families who want no part in it. However, the fact that lawmakers are discussing the issue suggests that the Russian leadership is facing difficult choices.
While some argue that Russia is reaching its breaking point, history has shown that the Kremlin has often relied on absorbing heavy losses in wars. The Soviet Union’s tactics in the Second World War saw massive casualty numbers, yet the country persisted. Despite the mounting pressure, it remains uncertain whether Russia will be forced to change its approach or if it will continue to sacrifice vast numbers of troops in its attempt to conquer Ukrainian territory.
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